Acceptance rates and average GPA/Test scores: why they're important and why they can be misleading (particularly for international students and students who need financial aid)

This post was co-authored especially for College Essay Guy by Independent Educational Consultants

Kristen Karovic, Founder of College Bloom

Alina Aksiyote, Co-Founder of Mosaico Mentors

A note from the authors: The content of this article won’t help every applicant: every situation is sensitive and unique, and education is continuously changing. However, we want to be transparent that our goals are to give you context, steps, and tools for further research so you can be empowered in your next decisions.

—Disclaimer: For the purposes of this article, an “international student” is a student who is a “nonresident alien”—not a U.S. citizen, U.S. national or eligible non-resident, who has not passed the green card test or the substantial presence test—, regardless of where the student completed his/her high school education. “College” and “university” are also used interchangeably.

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Believe it or not, one of the most important steps in the college application process happens before you even start applying to college—creating your college list.

As educators, we believe wholeheartedly in the power of a balanced and intentional college list. Perhaps you’ve heard colleges referred to as “reaches,” “fits,” or “safeties”? A balanced list has all three:

Colleges that you know you will be able to get into and afford (“safeties”)
Colleges that you might get into (“fits”)
And colleges that you probably won’t get into, but want to apply to anyways (“reaches”)

Finding schools you know you’ll love, be able to get into, and be able to afford is ESSENTIAL. This may seem tricky, but there are so many options out there. For more on creating a balanced, intentional college list, check out this article if you want to study outside the US and this one if you want to study in the US. If you’re a student who needs financial aid we also highly recommend checking out these schools that are actually cheap.

Now you may be asking yourself, how can I tell if a school is a safety, a fit or a reach?

Most students and counselor’s go-to is to look at the school’s stats of their freshmen year profile, mainly their acceptance rate, average SAT/ACT scores, average grade point average (GPA), and any other specifics they can find in the school’s Common Data Set.

Which leads us to the topic of this guide: acceptance rates and average test scores/GPA.

In this guide we’ll review:

The importance of knowing a school’s acceptance rate, SAT/ACT range and average GPA.
The best places to find this information
How to assess if a school outside the U.S. is a fit, reach or safety
Why this information can be misleading and what you can do

Why are acceptance rates, SAT/ACT ranges, and GPA averages important?

As we mentioned earlier, a balanced and intentional college list is incredibly important.

To create this list, you need to figure out if schools are safeties, fits or reaches.. And to get an idea of whether a U.S. school is a safety, fit, or reach you’re going to need to look at their acceptance rate, and compare your GPA and test scores (if you have them) to each school’s average GPA and test scores.

One go-to for students is to make sure that they’re within the middle 50th percentile. In other words, you want to check that at least 25% of the students accepted to the school had lower scores or lower grades than you do.

Of course, matching your stats with the school’s stats is no guarantee. Just because you’re in the middle 50th percentile of test scores for your favorite school, or even above the 75th percentile, that does not mean you're going to get in. Schools look at everything: your extracurriculars, service work, essays, letters of recommendation, if you chose the most rigorous classes available to you, what your counselor says about you… the list goes on.

Test scores and grades can get you in the front door and can give you a basic idea of whether a school is a reach, fit or safety. They do not guarantee you will get into a certain school, even if you surpass their acceptance profile. “Safeties” aren’t always a safe bet, which is why many counselors choose to call them “likelies” instead. We recommend having at least two or three of these on your list, just in case.

Acceptance rates can also give you a basic idea of what your chances are at getting into certain U.S. colleges and universities. No matter what your profile is, you’re going to want to include schools with a whole variety of acceptance rates- high and low. As Mark Moody explains with his Quick and Dirty List Builder, acceptance rates can even be a starting point for creating your college list.

Pro-tip: While acceptance rates can help you figure out if a school is a safety, fit or reach, they will not tell you much, if anything, about the quality of the school or whether it is a good match for you—academically, socially, emotionally or financially. An acceptance rate is a popularity indicator: it tells you how popular the school is, the percentage of students who got in out of all the students who applied. It does not tell you how good the school is or how much you might enjoy studying there. Unless prestige itself is a priority for you, we do not recommend using rankings or acceptance rates to decide on your favorite schools.

Now you may be thinking that every school has one acceptance rate, which you can easily search for on Google. However, if you choose to simply Google a college’s acceptance rate, you’ll get their overall acceptance rate. This acceptance rate is based on how many students were accepted to the school out of ALL the students who applied.

If you dig a little deeper, you may notice that different factors can greatly influence a school’s acceptance rate. Just as different factors can affect your chances of getting into a certain school, different factors can also affect a school’s acceptance rate. These factors can include:

financial need
application round (early action, early decision, regular decision)
gender
field of study
country of origin
in-state or out-of-state (for U.S.)
classification as a U.S. citizen/permanent resident or international student.

Essentially, if you’re an international student looking for significant financial support, your acceptance rate will likely be much lower than the school’s overall acceptance rate.

Which leads us to…

Why acceptance statistics can be misleading

(especially if you’re an international student who needs financial aid)

Perhaps the clearest way to explain this is with an example. If we take a look at the seven need-blind schools for international students—in other words, schools that do not take into account how much an international student can pay for college when making their admissions decision—their overall acceptance rates are as follows:

Let’s take a look at MIT for a moment. In 2020, 4,149 international students applied to the Class of 2024, but only 142 were admitted. That’s a 3.4% acceptance rate for international students instead of the general 7.3% acceptance for that same year, making it one of the most selective universities in the country, but one of the most well known in the world. While this data is not available, it is also possible that the SAT range and GPA average for international students could be higher than the overall statistic.

If we look at a need-aware institution (an institution that takes how much you can pay for college into account when making their admissions decision) we’ll also see other factors come into play.

For more on the differences between need-blind and need-aware schools, check out this article on terms you need to know before you apply for financial aid.

Case Study: Oberlin Admit Stats for International Students

At Oberlin College & Conservatory, 38% first-year students were admitted to the College of Arts and Sciences, and 29% to the Conservatory of Music in 2020. 33% of enrolling students (193 students) were admitted through the Early Decision round.

This would make many prospective international students believe that there is a 30-40% chance for acceptance to Oberlin College (regardless of whether they apply early or regular decision). However, let’s look at an international student statistic: “fewer than 15% of international applicants overall are admitted in a typical year.” For the Class of 2024, 10% of international students enrolled.

What’s more, we can find that “the majority of Oberlin’s international students are from China, followed next by India and then Vietnam.” What does this mean for you? Certain countries may have a higher quantity of applicants, making your chances of getting in even more competitive. Colleges and universities are often looking for a diverse student body, and this includes diverse nationalities. In fact, for Oberlin’s Class of 2024, 41 countries are represented in their first-year students who enrolled. So remember that if students from your country apply in large numbers to a certain university, your acceptance rate is likely much lower than the university’s international acceptance rate.

To further thicken the plot, how many of these international students applied Early Decision and were accepted versus how many applied through Regular Decision? And how many of those admitted students during each round needed aid, and exactly how much aid? In 2019-2020 at Oberlin, 52% of those 12% of international students received aid. That’s 181 international students total receiving aid. The average aid award? $38,222. Oberlin’s cost of attendance per year is $77,124. This means that on average accepted international students still paid $38,902 per year. So even at a college that can match 100% demonstrated financial aid, how many international students are they accepting who need a full ride (aka, the total $77,124 covered)?

We simply don’t have the data to know for sure, but we do know that it’s far, far lower than the 30-40% acceptance rate many focus on. You also want to keep in mind that we, as outsiders, cannot find the institutional goals for every single university, which factor into your admissions decision.

Videos like these from university representatives can help you understand how many factors influence a college admissions decision

And so we’re faced with a conundrum. We know these numbers are important to figure out if schools are fits, reaches or safeties and create a balanced college list. But we also know that they’re misleading, particularly for international students who need financial aid.

So, what can we do about it?

There’s a few things you can do. We’re here to help. Google is too.

Although data isn’t always available, here are some tips to help you try to seek out the data you need.

1. If you’ve never heard of the Common Data Set, check it out! It’s a great way to learn more about schools through their numbers. Just type “Common Data Set” along with the college’s name on Google to access it. You can also find a list of several Common Data Sets here.

2. If you’re applying to state schools, google their “in state” and “out-of-state” acceptance rates rather than their overall acceptance rate.

3. Look at the differences between a school’s early decision acceptance rate and their regular decision acceptance rate. Make an informed decision about whether to apply early decision or regular decision (and whether a school is a safety, fit or reach) based on the numbers. To do this, check out Jenny Kent and Jeff Levy’s podcast and chart on early decision versus regular decision acceptance rates for U.S colleges and universities.

Pro Tip: The decision on whether to apply to a school early decision, early action or regular decision is a difficult one. There’s a lot that goes into it including but not limited to your love for one particular school, how ready your application is, differences in the school’s early versus regular decision acceptance rate, and your fit overall. Of course, while some schools may have higher early decision acceptance rates, these could also be due to a more competitive applicant pool in their early rounds. We highly recommend listening to this full podcast to learn more about early decision versus regular decision acceptance rates.

4. If you’re an international student, make sure to look for each school’s international acceptance rate, not just their overall acceptance rate. You can even try searching for acceptance information regarding your particular country of origin.

5. If you’re an international student who needs financial aid, our greatest piece of advice is to find schools that you’ll love and KNOW you’ll be able to afford, with or without financial aid or a scholarship. The chances of getting a full ride or very significant aid in the U.S. are close to none. For more on this hard truth, click here. For a list of schools that are actually cheap, click here.

6. If you’re an international student who needs financial aid, apply to schools outside of the U.S.! You’ll find an amazing education and a great deal. To get started on a college list with schools outside of the U.S. check out this wonderful guide.

Pro Tip: Keep in mind that every country has its own admissions process. The process to create an intentional and balanced college list will be very different depending on the countries where you’re applying. For admission to UK universities, your chances of admission depend much more on your personal statement and ability to meet your course’s entry requirements than they do on an institution's overall acceptance rate. In Spain, admission can depend on your score for a subject exam. In the Netherlands, courses with limited spots are referred to as” Numerus Fixus” and follow their own deadlines and procedures. To get started, we highly recommend checking out this guide on how to create a college list with schools outside of the U.S..

7. Finally, and most importantly, create a balanced and intentional list.

Choose schools you like, choose schools you know you’ll be able to get into AND afford, and remember… a school’s acceptance rate, SAT range and average GPA do not define how good the school is or how good a match it is for you.

Onwards! May the force be with you.